Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 4, 2013
What good is technical analysis? Well, last week’s equities picks both went in the right direction (according to my analysis), and the crude oil futures contract dropped precipitously as predicted. Unfortunately last week’s published currency analysis went against me… while gold obediently went sideways. Wait a minute… did I say “obediently”?
Actually, the markets don’t do what I tell them to do. Darn It! That is why markets can be so frustrating. Many of us are used to controlling our environment by exerting our will upon it… we use the powers of our mind, physique, and personality to change things around us… some do it aggressively and some more subtly, but that is how we are used to getting things done. However, none of us are strong enough to exert our will upon any of these global markets. The only part of the trading environment we can control is ourselves. At best we can give ourselves knowledge, experience and the discipline to test and follow a plan.
A trading plan may include specific trade set-ups triggered by technical analysis indicator signals. However, indicators don’t control the markets either. In fact, regardless of all the hype out there, there is no indicator that can direct the future turns of the market. Technical analysis indicators can only read and report historical and current market conditions. Some can even make educated guesses about higher probability trading opportunities. But the market doesn’t have to do what the indicator suggests that it’s likely to do. In fact, there are robots and other traders out there programmed to trade against some of the more common indicator signals. You see, the indicators that you use are the windows that you look through to see the mass psychology of the markets which you are trading. The more common ones will show you what in earlier generations was known as ‘pop-psychology’. At first blush the analysis sounds and looks good, and is occasionally effective; but it’s also predictable to the sharks and vultures out there trying to nab your trading capital. That is why it is so important to have more sophisticated technical analysis indicators to help with your trading decisions. This is one of the reasons why we have created our own indicators. Another reason is that we can create tools that give us exactly the information that WE want to use in our trading. You will see some of those tools on the charts below.
And now for some proprietary technical analysis….
For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.
The Charts and Analysis
(This is an undecided market. It dropped following our bearish signals two weeks ago, but the Radar3 Trend Strength Index is still strongly bullish, even though the Triple Trender is now synchronized bearish. Radar2 Price Leader is accelerating after a bullish pullback divergence. Radar1 Fear/Greed gives the short term advantage to the buyers. The Triple Trender and Trend Exhaustion 3 give it to the sellers.)
(Here we see a bullish Trend Exhaustion 1 accompanying a Pullback 23 creating a bullish TE-123. The Triple Trender is bearish while the Radar3 Trend Strength is still bullish. Radar1 Fear/Greed still rising means that this market could move up to start this week.)
(Sell Short) NEM– Newmont Mining.
(Buy) GS- Goldman Sachs Inc.
(This very bearish market closed the week at significant support. Radar1 Fear/Greed, Radar3 Trend Strength, and the Triple Trender all are confirmed bearish. Support could hold, but the next downside target is $87.51 )
May the trend be with you,
Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading. Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor .