What My Job Is and Isn’t

//What My Job Is and Isn’t

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 15

Some think that as a technical analyst it is my job to try and predict the future of the markets I am studying. Not so!  I would rephrase my job description like this… it is my job to come up with  analysis that  provides a  short term bias that is constantly being updated, a medium term biases that takes longer to change, and a  long term bias that informs my investments more than my trading.  However, these are not predictions, they are biases.  This may sound like an apology, but it is not. Over the past year the market has moved pretty much in the directions I have expected (and published).  The way I see it, my job is not to predict the markets I trade; it is merely to design good trades for whichever direction the market might go. I cannot force my will on the group mentality which is the market.  At best, all I can do is be properly prepared to meet the market and her participants in the process buying and selling. That means having good entry and exit strategies in either direction. It also means having a perspective that is as accurate as possible. This is where experience and sophisticated technical analysis helps.  However, both of those come at a price.

So, what do we see for the coming week? In the S&P emini we currently rest around 1420. As noted last week we could easily see the current slide in the American equities market take us back to support levels established in March and reinforced last August around 1400.  1465 will act as resistance if we make it back there this week. As you are trading remember, this is earnings season and election season… anything could happen to spook or inspire a security or even the market as a whole. Economic and political surprises should not be unexpected at this time in the cycle; and fear has a better chance of inspiring a major move in the market than greed.

Below are the charts of some of the symbols that I am looking at this week for my trading watch list. There are examples both long and short. Each contains a little explanation of the analysis visible on the chart. If you have any questions about the indicators on these charts please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.



(A TE-123, pullback divergence setup… Trend  Exhaustion 1 with a simultaneous  Pullback 23. Wave counter shows that this may be the end of Wave 4.  This is occurring at a logical support level and above the long-term Triple Trender)


(A breakout of a Bull Flag and the resistance trendline accompanied by a Pullback 23. This one may backtrack to breakout level @ $10.07… target is $12.05)


(A pullback divergence with a Pullback 23 signal.  This one is also at a support level above the  long-term Triple Trender)



(A bearish pullback divergence below the long-term Triple Trender, accompanied by a Pullback 23 signal. This is occurring at a logical resistance level of previous lows.)


(A Bear Flag breakdown accompanied by an up trendline breakdown. All three ‘Radars’ are bearish too.)

May the trend be with you,


Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor .

2018-01-08T07:37:53+00:00October 15th, 2012|Hawk's Picks|