Upside or Down?

//Upside or Down?

 

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 18, 2013

As far as the raging American stock indexes are concerned, the daily charts show nothing but a strong bullish trend. Now, we all know that this won’t last forever, and that there will be a correction, and one day a reversal; but when? Personally, I’m looking for a correction early this week, and I will explain why. Although the daily chart is extremely bullish, if we drill down to a 50,000 share chart of the S&P eMini we start to see some early bearish signals.  For instance there is a Trend Exhaustion 3 signal preceding the recent high, and a bearish reversal signal where the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator rolled over from bullish to bearish without ever turning blue while it was on the bullish side of zero.  I also see bearish pivot divergences in Radar1 Fear Greed. Now, I know that we commonly see divergences all the way up a strongly trending market like this one, but the other indications I mentioned will have me considering some short term  (day-trading) bearish setups early this week. However, if you only trade in the direction of the longer term trend, then clearly you will be looking for bullish opportunities.

S&P  Futures (Daily)

(All three Trenders are bullish as is Radar3 Trend Strength and Radar1 Fear/Greed. However, decelerating Radar2 Price Leader indicates we may see a correction down to one of the trendlines.) 

S&P  Futures (50,000 share chart)

(Here we start to see some weakness in the uptrend. Note the Bearish divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed, and the bearish pattern in Radar3 Trend Strength. Also note the Trend Exhaustion 3 signal preceding the recent high. A breakdown below resistance at $1551 will cause the Triple Trender to confirm bearishness on this perspective.) 

Let’s take a look at some other charts…

For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

Other Charts and Analysis

Equities Setups:

(Sell Short) LCRX- Lam research.

(Bearish Pivot Divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed at the peak, breakdown from the up-trendline. All three Trenders bearish, Radar3 just turned bearish and Radar1 Fear Greed is bearish . )

(Buy) VTR– Ventas Inc.

(A Pullback 23 signal and a Trend Exhaustion 1 signal combining in a bullish Pullback divergence with Radar2 Price Leader… this is also known as Trend Exhaustion 123. )

Commodities:

GOLD

(This market is more bearish than bullish as indicated by the Triple Trender, Radar3 Trend Strength and the juxtaposition of price to the up and down trendlines. I’m seeing a bearish Pullback 23 setting up, but I would not be surprised to see it grind up to the down trendline or one of the resistance lines before heading back down to support at $1560.  )

CRUDE OIL

(This is a market with bullish potential as demonstrated by the bullish pullback divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed. However, the Long-term Trender and Radar3 Trend Strength and Radar2 are all showing bearish indications so I am looking for this to move to the downside this week.)

Forex:

(Sell)-EURCHF

( After the upward pink Radar3 Trend Strength rolled over to confirm bearishness we get a bearish Pullback 23, also have bearish Radar1 Fear/Greed. Downside target is 1.217)

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor .

2018-01-08T07:01:13+00:00March 17th, 2013|Hawk's Picks|